How Noctral estimates app revenue and downloads
Noctral estimates how much an app makes per month and how many downloads it gets from public store signals. This page explains what goes into the model, what the number means and where it can be wrong.
What the number represents
It is the monthly revenue an app earns through the store (subscriptions, in-app purchases and paid downloads), net of Apple’s or Google’s fee, in a reference storefront (United States or Brazil). It is not the company’s total revenue: web, advertising and B2B revenue are excluded.
Data sources
Every day Noctral records the total rating count, rating, price and listing of each catalog app on the App Store and Google Play. On Google Play, the install count published by the store is used as a direct anchor.
Downloads
The pace of new ratings is converted into downloads using a per-category ratio calibrated against real installs published on Google Play (over 1,600 apps in the calibration set).
Revenue
Downloads become new subscribers through a niche conversion rate. The subscriber base is rebuilt as a stock: converters come in, cancellations go out (niche churn), accounting for the app’s real age. Revenue = base × average price, net of store fees. An app that stopped growing loses revenue at the churn rate instead of staying flat.
Limitations
This is a modeled estimate, not an official developer figure. Apps that monetize outside the store (banks, marketplaces, B2B) intentionally show low revenue. Conversion, average price and churn are niche averages, so apps far above or below their niche have larger errors.
Public ranges
Public pages show rounded ranges (for example, $500K – $1M per month) with the estimate date. Exact values, daily history and trend are available after signing in to Noctral.
Updates
Estimates are recalculated daily from that day’s snapshot. The date shown on each page is the snapshot used.
How to cite: “Noctral estimate (noctralspy.com), [date]”, linking to the app page.
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