How it works
p̄ = (xA+xB)/(nA+nB). z = (pB−pA)/√[p̄(1−p̄)(1/nA+1/nB)]. Two-sided p-value = 2 × (1−Φ(|z|)).
ASO and experiments
Compare two proportions with a two-sided pooled z-test and inspect the difference, lift, and approximate p-value.
Statistical difference in this test; check direction and the planned horizon before deciding.
Requires at least 10 conversions and 10 non-conversions in each group. Repeated checking and stopping at significance increase false positives.
p̄ = (xA+xB)/(nA+nB). z = (pB−pA)/√[p̄(1−p̄)(1/nA+1/nB)]. Two-sided p-value = 2 × (1−Φ(|z|)).
500/10,000 versus 600/10,000 give 5% and 6%, 20% lift and an approximate p-value of 0.0019.
Requires at least 10 conversions and 10 non-conversions in each group. Repeated checking and stopping at significance increase false positives.
Method reference: NIST: difference of proportions
Compare two proportions with a two-sided pooled z-test and inspect the difference, lift, and approximate p-value.
No. Check direction, effect size, randomization integrity, and the planned horizon. A p-value is not the probability that a variant is correct.
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